The CLARITY Act’s delay until September could briefly pressure crypto prices before removing a major source of uncertainty, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan.
Summary
- Senate leaders delayed the CLARITY Act vote until September after bipartisan negotiations failed to produce an agreement.
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan expects crypto markets to “wobble for a minute” as traders price in the setback.
- Polymarket odds of passage in 2026 could fall into the teens, Hougan said.
- Disputes over ethics, illicit finance and stablecoin rewards remain unresolved.
What happened
Senate leaders have postponed consideration of the CLARITY Act until September, ending efforts to advance the crypto market structure bill before the August recess.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune confirmed that the chamber would not vote on the legislation before lawmakers left Washington. He said the bill would be prepared for consideration after senators return.
The delay followed several days without a cloture filing, the procedural step needed to limit debate and move toward a floor vote. As reported by crypto.news, Thune filed cloture on spending legislation, nominations and a college sports bill but not the CLARITY Act.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said the delay could produce a brief negative market reaction as traders adjust their expectations.
“If the Polymarket odds break solidly lower into the teens at least so we can put the uncertainty behind us,” Hougan wrote.
Hougan said crypto prices could “wobble for a minute” before the market potentially recovers during the fall.
Why the CLARITY Act delay matters
The CLARITY Act would establish a federal market structure for digital assets and divide oversight responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
For U.S. crypto companies and investors, the bill could replace parts of the current enforcement-led system with statutory rules covering token classifications, trading platforms and digital-asset intermediaries.
However, Republicans need Democratic support to advance it. The Senate’s cloture threshold requires 60 votes, while Republicans hold 53 seats. That means at least seven Democrats must support the procedural motion if every Republican votes in favor.
Negotiations have focused on ethics restrictions for elected officials and their families, illicit-finance safeguards, stablecoin rewards and protections for noncustodial software developers.
Sen. Cynthia Lummis said lawmakers had spent 11 months working on the legislation and continued negotiating daily. Crypto.news reported that Lummis had pushed for a vote before the recess but acknowledged that several provisions remained unresolved.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren also said she supports passing crypto legislation but opposes the current CLARITY Act. She cited concerns involving political conflicts of interest, consumer protection, national security and financial stability.
Crypto market reaction remains limited
Crypto prices showed no immediate broad sell-off following the delay. Bitcoin remained above $64,400, while Ethereum held above $1,900 and XRP traded near $1.05 at the time covered by the initial report.
Prediction markets had already priced in much of the legislative risk before Thune confirmed the postponement. Polymarket’s probability of the bill becoming law in 2026 fell from above 70% earlier in the year to around 17% as the recess approached.
That decline followed repeated Senate scheduling setbacks. Crypto.news previously reported that the bill was absent from the Aug. 4 floor schedule, while no cloture motion had been filed.
Hougan’s comments suggest another drop into the teens could bring a final repricing of the near-term legislative outlook. His view differs from a warning issued earlier in the week by Bernstein, which said a failed vote or delay could trigger another crypto sell-off before a later recovery.
What Comes Next for the CLARITY Act
Senators are expected to continue negotiating during the August recess before returning in September.
Thune has said the bill will be placed near the top of the Senate agenda, but lawmakers must still reach a bipartisan agreement, file cloture and secure 60 votes before beginning full consideration.
The Senate could also amend the House-passed version. Any changes would require the House to approve the revised text before the bill could reach President Donald Trump.
A crowded September calendar and the approaching midterm elections leave lawmakers with a narrower window. Until a bipartisan deal or cloture filing emerges, passage in 2026 will remain uncertain.
