Analysts are betting big on altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), signaling that a wave of approvals could be just around the corner.
In a June 30 X post, Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas shared updated approval forecasts for several altcoin ETF proposals under SEC review. The revised figures come as filings gain momentum and engagement between issuers and the regulatory watchdog picks up, boosting chances of approvals in the second half of the year.
Still top of the list are Solana (SOL), Litecoin (LTC), and XRP (XRP), now each given a 95% chance of approval, up from 90% for SOL and LTC, and 85% for XRP in the previous update. Dogecoin (DOGE) also saw its odds jump from 80% to 95%, as positive signals continue between issuers like Bitwise and the SEC.
https://twitter.com/jseyff/status/1939795594148540610?s=12
Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), Avalanche (AVAX), and Hedera (HBAR) are now all at 90%, up from earlier estimates around 75% to 80%. The boost adds fresh momentum for the tokens, despite recent delays from the regulatory commission clouding the approval timeline.
SUI’s (SUI) odds remain unchanged at 60%, weighed down by uncertainty around its regulatory classification and the absence of CFTC-regulated futures. Tron (TRX) shot up to 50% from its previous “not applicable,” though its review isn’t expected until 2026.
Meanwhile, a new entrant has joined the list. PENGU (PENGU) made its debut with a 50% approval estimate, following a June 26 filing by the CBOE to list and trade a fund tied to the token.
The proposal seeks the SEC’s approval for a Canary PENGU ETF, which would hold both the PENGU token and Pudgy Penguins NFTs, potentially marking the first ETF proposal to combine a memecoin and NFT collection. PENGU’s listing aligns with analyst expectations that a memecoin-focused ETF era could emerge in 2026.
The SEC has acknowledged most of the altcoin-based ETF filings, with final decisions expected through late 2025. Many of the top contenders are viewed as commodities, have CFTC-regulated futures and strong backing from major issuers, factors that have typically boosted approval odds in the past.
