The United States and China, arguably two of the largest economies in the world, put an end to a destructive trade war that has fueled recessionary fears and unnerved financial markets. This deal has strengthened the dollar and brought additional bearishness in gold.
This week, gold is looking to hit its weekly levels as we discussed in last week’s forecast, after which we can expect a major move to the upside. Let’s discuss the key pivot levels for gold buying and selling in this weekly forecast of May 12th to May 16th, 2025.
Key economic events of this week
Several significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week, all of which might significantly impact XAUUSD.
May 13th, Tuesday: Consumer Price Index, or Core CPI
With food and energy excluded, the Core CPI data, which shows the underlying inflation trajectory, will be keenly monitored. A higher-than-expected figure would push gold down and strengthen the dollar, particularly from the intraday barrier between $3258 and $3281. On the other hand, a soft number could encourage a recovery from support levels such as $3172–$3080.
May 15, Thursday: Core PPI (Producer Price Index) & Unemployment Claims
Producer inflation and the state of the labor market are both covered in this doubleheader. Growing inflation worries could be exacerbated by rising PPI numbers, which could restrict gold’s decline. In the meanwhile, unexpectedly high unemployment claims may spur demand for safe haven assets and reverse short-term gold bearishness.
May 16, Friday: Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment
Markets will be able to gauge household economic confidence by looking at consumer sentiment. While good optimism may encourage risk-on sentiment and cause more declines, weak sentiment may strengthen recession concerns and lift gold from deeper support zones.
Gold HTF Overview
Gold HTF overview remains the same as last week, with the asset looking to target its weekly FVG and push up considerably from that area. There are a lot of equal lows above this FVG which makes it an ideal place to enter buys and target the $3320 area as the first target to take profits.
Gold Forecast for May 12th to May 16th
Gold is showing bearish momentum in all lower time frames which makes selling an ideal position to enter and hold.
On the 1 hour timeframe the first selling level is coming up at the bearish order block and breaker block of $3258-3281. Sellers can expect a good push towards the downside from this area.
On the 4 hour timeframe, there is a bigger selling opportunity from $3304-3325 as the 0.5 fib level and the value area low of this entire bearish rally so far is coming in this zone.
The $3172-$3080 area seems to be the strongest for entering a buy as per the daily time frame. This is due to the FVG, breaker block, and the 0.618, and 0.786 Fibonnaci levels of the daily time frame levels, all colliding in the same zone.
Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation
To conclude, the safe strategy in gold is to look for sells in the lower time frame levels and look for buying in the higher time frame levels. Mark these levels on your chart for easier trading guidance when you trade.
Support Levels
- $3167-$3194 – weekly FVG
- $3172-$3080 – daily breaker block, FVG, and fib levels
Resistance Levels
- $3304-3325 – 0.5 fib level and the value area low
- $3258-3281 – bearish order block and breaker block
